SSV Ulm 1846 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Donaustadion to face SSV Ulm 1846 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 1W 1D 4L at Donaustadion — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SSV Ulm 1846 against 0.80 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 54% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 46% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.725 / defence 0.970 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.040 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.515. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 47 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 27% | Draw 29% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 27% | Draw 29% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.725 / def 0.970 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.040 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SSV Ulm 1846 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 27% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846's attack at 0.72x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.04x) against SSV Ulm 1846's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
27%
3.68
29%
3.41
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.70
1.53
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.53 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 2W 5D 6L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for SSV Ulm 1846 against 1.00 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.54 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 62%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.67 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Ulm 1846 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SSV Ulm 1846 and 67% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 33% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's games and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's matches and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 14, as SSV Ulm 1846 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 27% | Draw 29% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 46%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Ulm 1846 0.85 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.