SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Eintracht Braunschweig.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Braunschweig at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 15 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.60 (Eintracht Braunschweig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 3–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 61% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 73% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%). Note also that Eintracht Braunschweig surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / defence 1.100 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.740 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.381. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 59 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 59.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 43% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.33 | Draw 3.75 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% (last 10 away games).

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