Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hansa Rostock face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hansa Rostock welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Hansa Rostock's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Hansa Rostock) versus 1.10 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 39% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.811 / defence 1.204 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.839 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.411. Hansa Rostock's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output up. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 59 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 59.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.74 | Draw 3.97 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 60% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hansa Rostock 1.39 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.811 / def 1.204 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.839 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 37% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.81x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hansa Rostock's last 59 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
37%
2.74
25%
3.97
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.43 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 9D 31L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 21W 16D 22L from 59 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.12 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 3D 16L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 63%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hansa Rostock (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 19W 9D 31L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.14 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hansa Rostock have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Hansa Rostock 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 45%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hansa Rostock) and 59% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Hansa Rostock's games and 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 59% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 90% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.39 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hansa Rostock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 48%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.12 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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