SC Paderborn 07 4-3 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Arminia Bielefeld at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 1D 4L from 8 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SC Paderborn 07 have the edge — a 0.75 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for Arminia Bielefeld and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 50% and Arminia Bielefeld 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 38% | Arminia Bielefeld 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / defence 0.831 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.823 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.413. Data: 42 SC Paderborn 07 games / 8 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Arminia Bielefeld 4.55. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Arminia Bielefeld 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.65 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / def 0.831 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.823 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Arminia Bielefeld xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SC Paderborn 07 4 - 3 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 53% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.02x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.07
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.61
0.97
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.97 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arminia Bielefeld, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 4L across 8 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arminia Bielefeld's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld in 75%.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.00 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 33%, Arminia Bielefeld 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for SC Paderborn 07 and 33% for Arminia Bielefeld.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 67% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Arminia Bielefeld 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Arminia Bielefeld 4-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.97 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arminia Bielefeld outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 38%, Arminia Bielefeld 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.