SC Paderborn 07 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.70 for 1. FC Nürnberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1. FC Nürnberg 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 74% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.102 / defence 1.044 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.006 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.349. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SC Paderborn 07 games / 46 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 23%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.35. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.18 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.102 / def 1.044 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.006 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.42
1. FC Nürnberg xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 54% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.01x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.30
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.60
1.42
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
3%
38.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.42 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 21W 10D 15L from 46 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 19L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.24 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 14W 2D 6L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.11 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 10D 15L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 0.95 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 64%, 1. FC Nürnberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SC Paderborn 07 and 59% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 46% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SC Paderborn 07 1-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 54% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 23%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, 1. FC Nürnberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.