Preußen Münster 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Preußen Münster welcome VfL Bochum to Preussenstadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Preußen Münster have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's home record at Preussenstadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfL Bochum are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Preußen Münster register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, VfL Bochum in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Preußen Münster, 0 for VfL Bochum and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Preußen Münster winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Preußen Münster in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preußen Münster 63% versus VfL Bochum 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | VfL Bochum 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.882 / defence 1.019 | VfL Bochum attack 0.909 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.300. Data: 54 Preußen Münster games / 20 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | VfL Bochum 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Bochum at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Preußen Münster 80% | VfL Bochum 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Preußen Münster 1.15 / VfL Bochum 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.882 / def 1.019 | VfL Bochum attack 0.909 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Preußen Münster 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum part of?
Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 34% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): Preußen Münster 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 0W.
What form are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.88x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
34%
2.95
30%
3.37
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.35
1.20
VfL Bochum xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.20 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Preußen Münster's recent record stands at 13W 18D 23L from 54 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 29L across 54 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preußen Münster on 1.06 PPG, VfL Bochum on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Preußen Münster have managed 7W 12D 8L from 27 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfL Bochum's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preußen Münster come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.13 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or VfL Bochum away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.22 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
1
Draws
0
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum?
From 2 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, VfL Bochum have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Preußen Münster 1-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum?
Preußen Münster have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 63%, VfL Bochum 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Preußen Münster) and 48% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 26% of games; VfL Bochum in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Preußen Münster's games and 56% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 48% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 21, as Preußen Münster and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.20 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against VfL Bochum attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 34% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 36%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.06 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.