Preußen Münster 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 39%, yet in-form 1. FC Köln provide a compelling counter-argument — this Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees 1. FC Köln travel to Preußen-Stadion to take on Preußen Münster. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Preußen Münster have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Preußen-Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Köln are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Preußen Münster in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 67% and 1. FC Köln 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | 1. FC Köln 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.811 / defence 1.010 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.926 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.446. Data: 12 Preußen Münster games / 12 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preußen Münster are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 50% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Preußen Münster 1.50 / 1. FC Köln 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.811 / def 1.010 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.926 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Preußen Münster (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.35
1. FC Köln xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Preußen Münster 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preußen Münster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.81x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preußen Münster Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
1. FC Köln xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.35 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Preußen Münster have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Köln are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preußen Münster.
Venue Form
On home soil, Preußen Münster have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 67%.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Preußen Münster or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preußen Münster have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when 1. FC Köln 3-1 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Preußen Münster at 60%, 1. FC Köln at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Preußen Münster and 80% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Preußen Münster's games and 80% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Preußen Münster's matches and 80% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Preußen Münster 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Preußen Münster 0-1 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Preußen Münster fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, 1. FC Köln 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.