Hansa Rostock 1-2 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Karlsruher SC (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hansa Rostock face Karlsruher SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Karlsruher SC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Karlsruher SC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Karlsruher SC, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Karlsruher SC have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 37% versus Karlsruher SC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 46% | Karlsruher SC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.840 / defence 1.102 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.926 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.394. Data: 65 Hansa Rostock games / 65 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 45%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Karlsruher SC 2.22. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | Karlsruher SC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.03 / Karlsruher SC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.840 / def 1.102 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.926 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Karlsruher SC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 2 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 27% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
Record (5 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 2 | Karlsruher SC 3W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.84) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.93x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
27%
3.73
28%
3.60
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.46
1.42
Karlsruher SC xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.42 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 21W 9D 35L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Karlsruher SC's form line: 26W 17D 22L from 65 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.46 for Karlsruher SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (12W 3D 17L).
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 8W 9D 15L from 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karlsruher SC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.82 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 60%.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 35L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 26W 17D 22L in their last 65 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.22 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
4
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Karlsruher SC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Hansa Rostock 1-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 44%, Karlsruher SC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hansa Rostock) and 53% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 59% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 53% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out Hansa Rostock 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat Hansa Rostock 1-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 45%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 46%, Karlsruher SC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.11 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.