Hannover 96 3-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Heinz von Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 1.20 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Paderborn 07 have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Hannover 96.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 65% and SC Paderborn 07 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hannover 96 60% | SC Paderborn 07 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.52 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.029 / defence 0.960 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.087 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.411. Data: 65 Hannover 96 games / 65 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 38% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 80% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 38% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Hannover 96 1.52 / SC Paderborn 07 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.029 / def 0.960 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.087 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hannover 96 3 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 38% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 4W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (1.03) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.95
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.99
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.47 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 65 games, going 23W 21D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.55 PPG from 65 outings (29W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 15W 9D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.80 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 23W 21D 21L in their last 65 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 14D 22L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.69 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hannover 96 at 66%, SC Paderborn 07 at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Hannover 96 and 72% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Hannover 96's games and 66% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Hannover 96's matches and 72% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SC Paderborn 07 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SC Paderborn 07 3-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.52 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 38% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 60%, SC Paderborn 07 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.