Hansa Rostock 0-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 5W 1D 4L at Ostseestadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at Ostseestadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Schalke 04 — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hansa Rostock 0.80 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Schalke 04 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 4–3 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 41% versus FC Schalke 04 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 45% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 2.12 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.841 / defence 1.063 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.908 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.465. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Hansa Rostock games / 15 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 53% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 25%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | FC Schalke 04 4.00. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 60% | FC Schalke 04 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 53% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Hansa Rostock 2.12 / FC Schalke 04 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.841 / def 1.063 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.908 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Schalke 04 xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 53% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hansa Rostock's attack at 0.84x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
53%
1.87
22%
4.60
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.54
1.42
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
3%
33.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.42 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 7D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 0.96 PPG from 49 outings (12W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.18 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 9W 2D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (3W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.27 scored and 2.12 conceded.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.16 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when FC Schalke 04 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 44%, FC Schalke 04 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 60% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 52% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 60% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 2.12 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.42 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.91 / defence 1.50, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 53% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 25%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Schalke 04 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 45%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.18 PPG, FC Schalke 04 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.