Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees 1. FC Magdeburg travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena to take on Fortuna Düsseldorf. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Merkur Spiel-Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.30 (1. FC Magdeburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fortuna Düsseldorf: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | 1. FC Magdeburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.084 / defence 1.033 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.121 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.517. Data: 50 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 50 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 31% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 31% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.084 / def 1.033 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.121 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.517 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.76
1. FC Magdeburg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 5 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 31% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.08x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
31%
3.26
27%
3.68
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.25
1.76
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.76 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 25W 13D 12L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 15W 18D 17L from 50 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 60%.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 18D 17L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.56 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, 1. FC Magdeburg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 56% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 56% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 56% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.49 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.76 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 31% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, 1. FC Magdeburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.