1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 26 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (1. FC Nürnberg) versus 1.60 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 4–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.029 / defence 0.958 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.959 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.279. Data: 59 1. FC Nürnberg games / 59 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.85. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.029 / def 0.958 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.959 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 48% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.03) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.82
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.18 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 22W 12D 25L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 23W 14D 22L from 59 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.32 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (13W 6D 10L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 8W 7D 14L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.47 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 22W 12D 25L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.55 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 9 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 48%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 52% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 31% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.