1. FC Magdeburg 4-5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Avnet-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg at Avnet-Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, 1. FC Magdeburg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 65% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.964 / defence 1.109 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.987 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.200. Data: 37 1. FC Magdeburg games / 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.964 / def 1.109 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.987 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Magdeburg 4 - 5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 42% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 1W | Draws 4 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.62
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.31
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.31 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 11L from 37 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 17L across 37 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.51 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 5W 7D 6L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.35 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 11D 11L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.22 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-5 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat 1. FC Magdeburg 4-5 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.57 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 42% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 70%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.51 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.