1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees FC St. Pauli travel to MDCC-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 2W 2D 5L from 9 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (1. FC Magdeburg) versus 1.50 (FC St. Pauli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC St. Pauli trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 65% versus FC St. Pauli 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 65% | FC St. Pauli 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.11 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.698 / defence 1.102 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.922 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.340. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 1. FC Magdeburg games / 54 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 56% | FC St. Pauli 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.11 / FC St. Pauli 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.698 / def 1.102 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.922 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC St. Pauli xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 31% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (0.70) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.72
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.48
1.36
FC St. Pauli xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.36 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 3D 11L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 6W 8D 6L from 20 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.05 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.35 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 8D 6L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 0.89 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.56 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 56%, FC St. Pauli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 44% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; FC St. Pauli in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 44% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.11 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.36 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 31% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 42%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 65%, FC St. Pauli 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.05 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.