Saint Etienne 5-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 39%, yet in-form Estac Troyes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Estac Troyes at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Estac Troyes away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Saint Etienne have won 2, Estac Troyes 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Saint Etienne 1–0 Estac Troyes — a Saint Etienne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes trading profile (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 52% versus Estac Troyes 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 46% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.97 xG and Estac Troyes 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / defence 1.018 | Estac Troyes attack 0.706 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.090. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 61 games and Estac Troyes's last 23.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.59 | Draw 3.01 | Estac Troyes 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Saint Etienne 0.97 / Estac Troyes 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / def 1.018 | Estac Troyes attack 0.706 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 12 February 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne 5 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 39% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 61 games and Estac Troyes's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.01
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
1.75
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.78 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 16D 21L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 10W 21D 30L from 61 games, 0.84 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 8D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 10W 21D 30L in their last 61 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Estac Troyes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.58 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 5-0 Estac Troyes.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 42%, Estac Troyes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 64% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 64% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 64% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 71% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 5-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.97 xG and Estac Troyes 0.78 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Estac Troyes attack 0.71 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 46%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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