Ajaccio 3-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajaccio face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Guingamp meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ajaccio's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ajaccio's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ajaccio are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Guingamp's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Ajaccio, 2 for Guingamp and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Ajaccio 0–3 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 33% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 46% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Guingamp 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.011 / defence 0.837 | Guingamp attack 0.950 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Guingamp bring a tight defence (rating 0.743, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ajaccio's projected output down. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 23 games and Guingamp's last 61.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.87 | Draw 3.05 | Guingamp 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.88 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajaccio's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 40% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Ajaccio 0.93 / Guingamp 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.011 / def 0.837 | Guingamp attack 0.950 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Guingamp xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajaccio vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Ajaccio vs Guingamp kick off?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Ajaccio 3 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Ajaccio vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Guingamp part of?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 35% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ajaccio and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Ajaccio vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.01x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.95x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Ajaccio's last 23 games and Guingamp's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
35%
2.87
33%
3.05
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.81
0.88
Guingamp xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajaccio vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.88 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 16W 11D 34L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 23W 18D 20L from 61 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 10D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
Ajaccio (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajaccio
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Ajaccio vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 16W 11D 34L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.33 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Guingamp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ajaccio and Guingamp, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Ajaccio on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajaccio vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajaccio have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 30%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ajaccio and 33% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Guingamp in 40%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games; Guingamp in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajaccio vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajaccio and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajaccio and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajaccio's recent games and 33% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 63% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajaccio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Guingamp 3-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Guingamp 0.88 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 0.74, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 46%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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