Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Saint Etienne welcome Bordeaux to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bordeaux stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bordeaux's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Saint Etienne have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Saint Etienne have won 1, Bordeaux 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Saint Etienne 0–0 Bordeaux — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Bordeaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 45% | Bordeaux 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.59 xG and Bordeaux 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.131 / defence 0.777 | Bordeaux attack 1.001 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Bordeaux's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Saint Etienne have a tight defence (rating 0.777), which is pulling Bordeaux's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 70 games and Bordeaux's last 69.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 52% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.93 | Draw 3.63 | Bordeaux 4.85. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 33 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 52% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.59 / Bordeaux 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.131 / def 0.777 | Bordeaux attack 1.001 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bordeaux xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 52% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.13) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 70 games and Bordeaux's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.63
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Bordeaux xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
23.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.92 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 31W 17D 21L from 69 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 20L across 69 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.59 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 18W 7D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 12W 9D 14L across their last 35 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.29 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 31W 17D 21L in their last 69 games (1.59 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 31W 18D 20L in their last 69 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Bordeaux away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.74 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 40%, Bordeaux 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Saint Etienne) and 49% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bordeaux in 31%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 26% of games; Bordeaux in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 46% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 49% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 77% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Bordeaux 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Bordeaux 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.59 xG and Bordeaux 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Bordeaux attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 52% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 45%, Bordeaux 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.59 PPG, Bordeaux 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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