Ajaccio 2-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Ajaccio welcome Saint Etienne to Stade Michel-Moretti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade Michel-Moretti this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel-Moretti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade Michel-Moretti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Ajaccio's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ajaccio's 30% rate and Saint Etienne's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 0 for Saint Etienne and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Saint Etienne trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 35% versus Saint Etienne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 45% | Saint Etienne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.72 xG and Saint Etienne 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.920 / defence 0.927 | Saint Etienne attack 1.145 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.170. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.671 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Ajaccio games / 69 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Saint Etienne 2.13. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 30% | Saint Etienne 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Ajaccio 0.72 / Saint Etienne 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.920 / def 0.927 | Saint Etienne attack 1.145 / def 0.671 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Ajaccio 2 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel-Moretti.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne part of?
Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 20% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajaccio and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajaccio's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.09
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.96
1.24
Saint Etienne xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
6%
17.15
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 17.5 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.24 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 17W 14D 38L from 69 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 21L across 69 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajaccio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 12W 8D 14L from 34 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 13W 10D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 17W 14D 38L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 31W 17D 21L in their last 69 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.29 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Ajaccio 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Saint Etienne?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 29%, Saint Etienne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ajaccio) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 35%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 56% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ajaccio's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.72 xG and Saint Etienne 1.24 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 0.67, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 20% | Draw 32% | Saint Etienne 47%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ajaccio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 45%, Saint Etienne 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.