Rodez 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Amiens meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rodez, 2 for Amiens and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 64% versus Amiens 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 62% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.66 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.023 / defence 1.338 | Amiens attack 0.846 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Rodez games / 61 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 24% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Amiens 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Amiens 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 24% | Amiens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Rodez 1.66 / Amiens 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.023 / def 1.338 | Amiens attack 0.846 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Rodez (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Amiens xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Amiens kick off?
Rodez vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Rodez 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Rodez vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Amiens part of?
Rodez vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 47% chance of winning, Amiens a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rodez and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Amiens?
Record (7 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 3 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Rodez and Amiens in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.02x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.85x) against Rodez's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.13
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.89
1.23
Amiens xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rodez and 1.23 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 17D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.34 PPG from 61 outings (21W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Rodez against 1.34 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Amiens in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Amiens in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 22W 17D 22L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Amiens have gone 21W 19D 21L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Amiens away?
Rodez's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.57 PPG; Amiens away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Rodez or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Amiens in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
4
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Amiens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 67%, Amiens 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rodez) and 43% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Rodez's recent games and 43% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Amiens tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Amiens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 24, as Rodez and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.66 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 1.34 against Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 47% | Draw 24% | Amiens 28%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 62%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.36 PPG, Amiens 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.