Reims 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Bastia meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Bastia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Reims's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Reims 1W, Bastia 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Bastia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 46% | Bastia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.36 xG and Bastia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.208 / defence 0.908 | Bastia attack 0.799 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. Data: 21 Reims games / 54 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 4.35. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Bastia 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Reims 1.36 / Bastia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.208 / def 0.908 | Bastia attack 0.799 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Reims (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Bastia kick off?
Reims vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Bastia?
Reims 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Reims vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Bastia part of?
Reims vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Reims and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Reims and Bastia in?
Reims (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.21) and Bastia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.80x) against Reims's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 21/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.60
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Reims xG
Total xG
2.21
0.84
Bastia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
6%
16.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Reims and 0.84 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Reims have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 14D 22L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 14W 21D 19L from 54 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Reims against 1.17 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 10D 13L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Bastia in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Bastia have gone 14W 21D 19L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Bastia away?
Reims's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.35 PPG; Bastia away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Reims or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reims
1
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Bastia?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Bastia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Reims 0-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Bastia?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Bastia 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Reims and 23% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 27% of games; Bastia in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 31% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Reims's recent games and 23% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Bastia tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bastia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, as Reims and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.36 xG and Bastia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Bastia attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.26 PPG, Bastia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.