PAU 4-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.10 PPG, RED Star FC 93 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 38% versus RED Star FC 93 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 38% | RED Star FC 93 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.793 / defence 0.816 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.813 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.084. PAU's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 PAU games / 13 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 21%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | RED Star FC 93 4.76. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | RED Star FC 93 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG PAU 1.26 / RED Star FC 93 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.793 / def 0.816 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.813 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.72
RED Star FC 93 xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
PAU 4 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both PAU and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.79x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
PAU xG
Total xG
1.98
0.72
RED Star FC 93 xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are PAU and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for PAU and 0.72 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, PAU have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 0.92 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: PAU have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
PAU's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.83 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.17 PPG.
Have PAU or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAU 17% BTTS, RED Star FC 93 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for PAU and 33% for RED Star FC 93.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 33% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of PAU's recent games and 33% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat RED Star FC 93 4-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.72 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 21%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 38%, RED Star FC 93 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.