Martigues 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Martigues vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade Jean Laville to take on Martigues. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Martigues — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Martigues's home record at Stade Jean Laville: 0W 1D 8L from 9 Ligue 2 appearances (0.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.11 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Jean Laville this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Clermont Foot are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Martigues's 11% and Clermont Foot's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Martigues, 0 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Martigues winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Martigues in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Martigues 29% versus Clermont Foot 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Martigues 47% | Clermont Foot 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.57 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.430 / defence 1.465 | Clermont Foot attack 0.705 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Martigues's attack strength of 0.430 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Martigues games / 17 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 5.26 | Draw 2.94 | Clermont Foot 2.13. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Martigues's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Martigues 11% | Clermont Foot 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Jean Laville • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Martigues 0.57 / Clermont Foot 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.430 / def 1.465 | Clermont Foot attack 0.705 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Martigues vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Martigues vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Stade Jean Laville.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Martigues 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Martigues vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Laville.
What competition is Martigues vs Clermont Foot part of?
Martigues vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 19% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 47% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Martigues and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Martigues vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Martigues 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Martigues and Clermont Foot in?
Martigues (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Martigues's attack rating (0.43) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Martigues's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
19%
5.20
34%
2.94
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.6%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Martigues xG
Total xG
1.63
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
5.20
19%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
57%
1.77
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
26%
3.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.6 | 20.8 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Martigues and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Martigues and 1.06 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Martigues come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 3D 11L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Martigues's home form reads 0W 1D 7L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.12 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Martigues are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Martigues and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Martigues at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Martigues at home: 0.12 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Martigues
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Clermont Foot?
From 2 meetings on record, Martigues have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Martigues 0-1 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Martigues see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Martigues 12% BTTS, Clermont Foot 12%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Martigues and 25% for Clermont Foot.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 38%; Martigues have failed to score in 88% of games; Clermont Foot in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Martigues play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Martigues's recent matches and 12% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Martigues vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Martigues's recent games and 25% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Martigues and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Martigues have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Martigues 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Martigues 0-1 at Stade Jean Laville, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.57 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.43 / defence 1.47 against Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 19% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 47%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 47%, Clermont Foot 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.