Guingamp 3-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Grenoble and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Grenoble 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 49% | Grenoble 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.60 xG and Grenoble 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.072 / defence 1.089 | Grenoble attack 0.956 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.101. Data: 49 Guingamp games / 49 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Grenoble 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Grenoble 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Guingamp 1.60 / Grenoble 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.072 / def 1.089 | Grenoble attack 0.956 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Grenoble xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 48% chance of winning, Grenoble a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 4 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.07) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.04
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Grenoble xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.15 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 13D 18L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 18W 14D 17L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.37 PPG, Grenoble on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 7W 5D 12L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.22 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Grenoble in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 42%, Grenoble 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Guingamp) and 50% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Grenoble in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Grenoble 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.60 xG and Grenoble 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against Grenoble attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 48% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 49%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Grenoble's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Grenoble 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.