Estac Troyes 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stade de l'Aube — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.00 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Auxerre in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Estac Troyes, 1 for Auxerre and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 70% and Auxerre 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 64% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.85 xG and Auxerre 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.142 / defence 1.220 | Auxerre attack 1.550 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.034. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.550 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Estac Troyes games / 6 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 41%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Auxerre 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Estac Troyes 1.85 / Auxerre 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.142 / def 1.220 | Auxerre attack 1.550 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Auxerre xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Estac Troyes 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 37% chance of winning, Auxerre a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Estac Troyes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.55x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
37%
2.72
22%
4.52
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.80
1.96
Auxerre xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.96 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 5W 16D 23L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 10W 14D 20L from 44 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.00 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (2W 12D 7L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 5D 11L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 5W 16D 23L in their last 44 games (0.70 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 14D 20L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.86 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2024, when Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Estac Troyes, 62% for Auxerre — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estac Troyes) and 57% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 29% of games; Auxerre in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Estac Troyes's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 57% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Estac Troyes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Estac Troyes 1-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.85 xG and Auxerre 1.96 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.14 / defence 1.22 against Auxerre attack 1.55 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 41%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 64%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 0.70 PPG, Auxerre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.