Annecy 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Annecy at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Annecy's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 42% versus Estac Troyes 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 44% | Estac Troyes 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.63 xG and Estac Troyes 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.047 / defence 1.111 | Estac Troyes attack 0.999 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.992. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 43 games and Estac Troyes's last 5.
Result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 25%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.03 | Draw 3.96 | Estac Troyes 3.93. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 6 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Annecy 1.63 / Estac Troyes 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.047 / def 1.111 | Estac Troyes attack 0.999 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Annecy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Estac Troyes xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Annecy 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Annecy vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Estac Troyes part of?
Annecy vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 6) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 49% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Annecy and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Annecy vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (1.00x) against Annecy's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 43 games and Estac Troyes's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.96
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.73
1.10
Estac Troyes xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Annecy and 1.10 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 12W 15D 16L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 5W 15D 23L from 43 games, 0.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 3D 16L from their last 22 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.26 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 72%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Annecy (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Annecy vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 5W 15D 23L in their last 43 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Estac Troyes away?
Annecy's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.59 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Annecy or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Estac Troyes have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Annecy 1-2 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 36%, Estac Troyes 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Annecy) and 82% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 4% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 32% of games; Estac Troyes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Annecy's recent matches and 73% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Annecy's matches and 82% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Annecy and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Annecy's recent matches and 86% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 6, as Annecy and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.63 xG and Estac Troyes 1.10 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Estac Troyes attack 1.00 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 25%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 44%, Estac Troyes 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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