Dunkerque 3-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Clermont Foot travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dunkerque's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dunkerque are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Dunkerque have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Dunkerque have won 1, Clermont Foot 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Dunkerque 1–0 Clermont Foot — a Dunkerque win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 46% versus Clermont Foot 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 39% | Clermont Foot 42%). Note also that Clermont Foot surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Dunkerque recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.43 xG and Clermont Foot 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.968 / defence 0.892 | Clermont Foot attack 0.841 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 61 games and Clermont Foot's last 23.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 52% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 21%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.94 | Draw 3.71 | Clermont Foot 4.68. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 50% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 52% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Dunkerque 1.43 / Clermont Foot 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.968 / def 0.892 | Clermont Foot attack 0.841 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Clermont Foot xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot?
Dunkerque 3 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot part of?
Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 52% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dunkerque and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.97x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dunkerque's last 61 games and Clermont Foot's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.71
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.25
0.82
Clermont Foot xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.82 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 12D 21L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 11W 17D 29L from 57 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Dunkerque are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 2D 13L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 6W 6D 16L from their last 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.82 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Dunkerque (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dunkerque
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Dunkerque and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 11W 17D 29L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Clermont Foot away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.46 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2025, when Dunkerque won Dunkerque 3-0 Clermont Foot.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Clermont Foot?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dunkerque have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Dunkerque 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Clermont Foot?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 39%, Clermont Foot 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dunkerque) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 36% of games; Clermont Foot in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dunkerque vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dunkerque and Clermont Foot matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 43% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dunkerque and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dunkerque's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 79% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Clermont Foot 3-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.43 xG and Clermont Foot 0.82 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Clermont Foot attack 0.84 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 52% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 21%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 39%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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