Grenoble 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Guingamp at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.70 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Grenoble, 2 for Guingamp and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 44% versus Guingamp 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 48% | Guingamp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.11 xG and Guingamp 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.951 / defence 0.859 | Guingamp attack 1.268 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Grenoble games / 61 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 34% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 34% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Grenoble 1.11 / Guingamp 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.951 / def 0.859 | Guingamp attack 1.268 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Guingamp xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Guingamp kick off?
Grenoble vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Grenoble 1 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Grenoble vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Guingamp part of?
Grenoble vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Grenoble and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 4 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in?
Grenoble (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.95) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.52
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.29
1.18
Guingamp xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.18 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grenoble come into this having played 61 games, going 23W 16D 22L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.46 PPG from 61 outings (25W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.39 PPG, Guingamp on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Grenoble's home form reads 13W 10D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.57 points per game from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Grenoble are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 23W 16D 22L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Guingamp away?
Grenoble's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.63 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grenoble and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Grenoble
7
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 43%, Guingamp 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Grenoble) and 47% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Guingamp in 40%; Grenoble have failed to score in 40% of games; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Grenoble's recent matches and 43% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Grenoble's recent games and 47% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Guingamp tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble and Guingamp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 24, as Grenoble and Guingamp drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.11 xG and Guingamp 1.18 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against Guingamp attack 1.27 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 34% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 38%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 48%, Guingamp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.39 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.