Dunkerque 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Marcel-Tribut plays host to Dunkerque versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 25 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Dunkerque (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajaccio have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Dunkerque. A 1.10 PPG lead over Ajaccio (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dunkerque lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 46% versus Ajaccio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 44% | Ajaccio 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.71 xG and Ajaccio 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.118 / defence 0.975 | Ajaccio attack 0.668 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.072. Data: 51 Dunkerque games / 50 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 62% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 15%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Ajaccio 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Dunkerque (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 60% | Ajaccio 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 62% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Dunkerque 1.71 / Ajaccio 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.118 / def 0.975 | Ajaccio attack 0.668 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ajaccio xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Ajaccio kick off?
Dunkerque vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio part of?
Dunkerque vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 62% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dunkerque and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
Record (4 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Ajaccio in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dunkerque's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.67x) against Dunkerque's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.26
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.40
0.70
Ajaccio xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.70 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 10D 20L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (16W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.20 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dunkerque's home form reads 10W 3D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.44 points per game from 25 outings (2W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.90 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 20W 10D 20L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Ajaccio away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.32 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
1
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Ajaccio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Ajaccio 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Ajaccio?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Dunkerque) and 28% (Ajaccio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dunkerque) and 36% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 40% of games; Ajaccio in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 28% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dunkerque's recent games and 36% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.71 xG and Ajaccio 0.70 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Ajaccio attack 0.67 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 62% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 15%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Ajaccio 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.40 PPG, Ajaccio 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.