Concarneau 1-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Concarneau vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade du Roudourou to face Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Concarneau's record over their last 4 games: 0W 1D 3L (0.25 PPG). Last five: D L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings (25%).
Annecy have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Annecy have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Annecy arrive in superior form — a 1.15 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.25) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of Concarneau's games and 50% of Annecy's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 25% | Annecy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.81 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.629 / defence 1.101 | Annecy attack 0.892 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 0.967. Concarneau's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Concarneau's last 4 games and Annecy's last 42.
Result probabilities: Concarneau 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 37%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.37 | Draw 3.01 | Annecy 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Concarneau's lower xG of 0.81 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 0% (last 4 games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 5 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Concarneau 0.81 / Annecy 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.629 / def 1.101 | Annecy attack 0.892 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.237 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Annecy xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Concarneau vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Concarneau vs Annecy kick off?
Concarneau vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Annecy?
Concarneau 1 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Concarneau vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Concarneau vs Annecy part of?
Concarneau vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 5) (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Concarneau and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Concarneau vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.63x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.89x) against Concarneau's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Concarneau's last 4 games and Annecy's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.37
33%
3.01
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Concarneau xG
Total xG
1.76
0.95
Annecy xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 16.3 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Concarneau vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Concarneau and 0.95 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Concarneau come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-D across their last five.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Concarneau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Concarneau are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
Concarneau (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Concarneau
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Concarneau vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Concarneau and Annecy in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Annecy have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Concarneau or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Annecy in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Concarneau and Annecy, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Concarneau vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Annecy?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Concarneau have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Annecy 0-3 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Annecy?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Concarneau's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Concarneau) and 50% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Concarneau) and 50% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 50%; Concarneau have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Concarneau vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Concarneau and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Concarneau's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Concarneau and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Concarneau's recent games and 50% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 25% of Concarneau's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Concarneau and Annecy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 5, as Concarneau and Annecy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 0.81 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.63 / defence 1.10 against Annecy attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 37%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 25%, Annecy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Concarneau scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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