Clermont Foot 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Clermont Foot welcome Annecy to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.20 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 3–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 56% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 40% | Annecy 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Annecy 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.898 / defence 0.934 | Annecy attack 0.947 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.281. Data: 43 Clermont Foot games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Annecy 34%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Annecy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Clermont Foot 1.22 / Annecy 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.898 / def 0.934 | Annecy attack 0.947 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Annecy xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Annecy kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Annecy part of?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 38% chance of winning, Annecy a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Clermont Foot and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.90) and Annecy's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.58
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.35
1.13
Annecy xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.13 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 9W 15D 19L from 43 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 15L across 43 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 4W 9D 8L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 6W 5D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.19 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 15D 19L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Annecy have gone 16W 12D 15L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Annecy in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Annecy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 62%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Clermont Foot) and 43% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 38% of games; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 43% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Annecy tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Annecy in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Annecy 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Annecy attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Annecy 34%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 40%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.