Boulogne 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boulogne and Bastia meet at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 16 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 1W 0D 5L across 6 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 0W 0D 3L at Stade de la Libération — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Libération this season.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bastia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bastia are 0.50 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Bastia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 50% | Bastia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 0.81 xG and Bastia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.725 / defence 1.196 | Bastia attack 0.714 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.075. Boulogne's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Boulogne games / 38 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 30% | Draw 34% | Bastia 36%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Bastia 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Boulogne's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 67% | Bastia 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 30% | Draw 34% | Bastia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Boulogne 0.81 / Bastia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.725 / def 1.196 | Bastia attack 0.714 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Bastia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bastia xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Bastia kick off?
Boulogne vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 16 September 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Bastia?
Boulogne 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Boulogne vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Bastia part of?
Boulogne vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 30% chance of winning, Bastia a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Boulogne and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Bastia in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.72) and Bastia's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.71x) against Boulogne's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
30%
3.30
34%
2.98
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Boulogne xG
Total xG
1.73
0.92
Bastia xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Boulogne and 0.92 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boulogne come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 0D 5L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Boulogne's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boulogne are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bastia in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Bastia in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Bastia have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.00 PPG; Bastia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Boulogne
0
Draws
0
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Bastia?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 2, Bastia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Bastia 0-1 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Bastia?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bastia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 67%, Bastia 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Boulogne) and 33% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 33%; Boulogne have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Boulogne's recent matches and 33% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Boulogne's recent games and 33% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Bastia tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bastia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.81 xG and Bastia 0.92 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 30% | Draw 34% | Bastia 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 50%, Bastia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Boulogne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.