Bastia 2-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Bastia welcome Dunkerque to Stade Armand-Césari. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.60 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bastia, 2 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 45% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.54 xG and Dunkerque 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.011 / defence 0.761 | Dunkerque attack 1.121 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.061. Bastia's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Bastia games / 65 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 52% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 22%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 4.55. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 50% | Dunkerque 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 52% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Bastia 1.54 / Dunkerque 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.011 / def 0.761 | Dunkerque attack 1.121 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bastia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Dunkerque xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dunkerque kick off?
Bastia vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Bastia 2 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Bastia vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dunkerque part of?
Bastia vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 52% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bastia and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.89
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.44
0.91
Dunkerque xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bastia and 0.91 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 22W 22D 21L from 65 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 25L across 65 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 14W 12D 6L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 13W 9D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 22W 22D 21L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 27W 13D 25L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dunkerque away?
Bastia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.69 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
3
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 44%, Dunkerque 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bastia) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dunkerque in 31%; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bastia's recent matches and 53% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bastia's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Dunkerque 2-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.54 xG and Dunkerque 0.91 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.01 / defence 0.76 against Dunkerque attack 1.12 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 52% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 22%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.35 PPG, Dunkerque 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.