Amiens 1-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Bordeaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bordeaux travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Bordeaux have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Bordeaux have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Amiens 1.60 PPG, Bordeaux 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Amiens have won 0, Bordeaux 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Amiens 0–2 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 45% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Bordeaux 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 36% | Bordeaux 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.24 xG and Bordeaux 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.824 / defence 0.834 | Bordeaux attack 0.965 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.105. Bordeaux's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 62 games and Bordeaux's last 61.
Result probabilities: Amiens 44% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 27%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.26 | Draw 3.43 | Bordeaux 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 44% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Amiens 1.24 / Bordeaux 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.824 / def 0.834 | Bordeaux attack 0.965 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Amiens (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bordeaux xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Bordeaux kick off?
Amiens vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 19 February 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Amiens 1 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Amiens vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bordeaux part of?
Amiens vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 44% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Amiens vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 62 games and Bordeaux's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.43
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
Bordeaux xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Amiens and 0.89 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 16D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.66 PPG from 61 outings (29W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.34 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 7D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.28 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bordeaux away?
Amiens's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.45 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 19 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Amiens
2
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Bordeaux have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 February 2024: Amiens 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Bordeaux 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Amiens) and 48% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bordeaux in 32%; Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Bordeaux in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 42% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Amiens's recent games and 48% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 74% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens and Bordeaux share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Bordeaux finished level at 1-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.24 xG and Bordeaux 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Bordeaux attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 44% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 27%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Bordeaux 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.34 PPG, Bordeaux 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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