Bastia 0-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bastia and Rodez meet at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Rodez (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Bastia against 1.20 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Rodez edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Bastia 1–1 Rodez — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Rodez 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 41% | Rodez 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.892 / defence 0.879 | Rodez attack 1.108 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Rodez's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Data: built from Bastia's last 62 games and Rodez's last 61.
Result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 26% | Rodez 28%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.16 | Draw 3.84 | Rodez 3.63. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 26% | Rodez 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Bastia 1.47 / Rodez 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.892 / def 0.879 | Rodez attack 1.108 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Bastia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Rodez xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Rodez kick off?
Bastia vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Bastia 0 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Bastia vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Rodez part of?
Bastia vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 46% chance of winning, Rodez a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bastia and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bastia vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bastia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.11x) against Bastia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 62 games and Rodez's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.84
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
Rodez xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bastia and 1.07 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia's recent record stands at 25W 15D 21L from 61 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 22L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Bastia against 1.23 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 17W 7D 6L from their last 30 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Rodez in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 21D 22L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Rodez away?
Bastia's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.93 PPG; Rodez away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Bastia or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bastia
4
Draws
4
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Rodez?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 2, Rodez have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 40%, Rodez 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bastia) and 50% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rodez in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bastia's recent matches and 57% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bastia's recent games and 50% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Bastia 0-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Rodez attack 1.11 / defence 1.33, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 46% | Draw 26% | Rodez 28%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 41%, Rodez 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.48 PPG, Rodez 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 25
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →