Amiens 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stade de la Licorne this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Amiens, 1.20 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Amiens are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Amiens winning.
The historical record gives Amiens a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bastia — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Bastia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 51% | Bastia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.30 xG and Bastia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.980 / defence 1.167 | Bastia attack 0.815 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.098. Data: 38 Amiens games / 37 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 28% | Bastia 30%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | Bastia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 28% | Bastia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Amiens 1.30 / Bastia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.980 / def 1.167 | Bastia attack 0.815 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Amiens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bastia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Bastia kick off?
Amiens vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Amiens 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Amiens vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bastia part of?
Amiens vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 42% chance of winning, Bastia a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Amiens and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
Record (8 meetings): Amiens 4W | Draws 3 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Amiens and Bastia in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.81x) against Amiens's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.58
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Bastia xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Amiens and 1.04 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 6D 18L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia's form line: 11W 16D 10L from 37 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Amiens against 1.32 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 8D 8L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.22 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Bastia in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 13W 6D 18L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Bastia have gone 11W 16D 10L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bastia away?
Amiens's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.83 PPG; Bastia away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bastia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
5
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Bastia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bastia?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 56%, Bastia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 28% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bastia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Amiens's recent matches and 44% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 28% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Bastia tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bastia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 5, as Amiens and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.30 xG and Bastia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 42% | Draw 28% | Bastia 30%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 51%, Bastia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.22 PPG, Bastia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.