Caen 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Caen welcome Rodez to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Caen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Caen) versus 1.60 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Caen, 3 for Rodez and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–5 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Caen trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 56% versus Rodez 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Rodez 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.18 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.870 / defence 0.771 | Rodez attack 1.256 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Caen's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Caen games / 68 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 36% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Rodez 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Caen at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 20% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 36% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Caen 1.18 / Rodez 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.870 / def 0.771 | Rodez attack 1.256 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Caen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Rodez kick off?
Caen vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Rodez?
Caen 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Caen vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Rodez part of?
Caen vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 36% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Caen and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): Caen 2W | Draws 0 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Caen and Rodez in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
36%
2.78
31%
3.22
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Caen xG
Total xG
2.31
1.12
Rodez xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Caen and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Caen and 1.12 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen's recent record stands at 28W 17D 23L from 68 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 22W 24D 22L across 68 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.49 PPG, Rodez on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Caen have managed 18W 9D 7L from 34 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 11W 11D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.34 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Rodez in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 28W 17D 23L in their last 68 games (1.49 PPG), while Rodez have gone 22W 24D 22L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Rodez away?
Caen's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.85 PPG; Rodez away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jul 2021, when Caen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Caen's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
2
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Rodez 2-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 47%, Rodez 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Caen) and 47% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Rodez in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Caen's recent matches and 56% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Caen's recent games and 47% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Rodez tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rodez in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.18 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against Rodez attack 1.26 / defence 1.16, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 36% | Draw 31% | Rodez 33%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Rodez 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.49 PPG, Rodez 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.