Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lille to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lille have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Stade Brestois 29) versus 1.90 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stade Brestois 29 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 3 for Lille and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 50% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 50% | Lille 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.33 xG and Lille 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.043 / defence 0.987 | Lille attack 0.945 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.412. Data: 66 Stade Brestois 29 games / 66 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 37% | Draw 26% | Lille 37%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 70% | Lille 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 37% | Draw 26% | Lille 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.33 / Lille 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.043 / def 0.987 | Lille attack 0.945 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lille xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Lille.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 37% chance of winning, Lille a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Record (7 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 3 | Lille 3W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (1.04) and Lille's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.83
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.65
1.32
Lille xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.32 for Lille, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 15D 20L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.76 PPG from 66 outings (32W 20D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.64 PPG, Lille on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 17W 10D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.36 points per game from 33 outings (11W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lille in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 31W 15D 20L in their last 66 games (1.64 PPG), while Lille have gone 32W 20D 14L in their last 66 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lille away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.85 PPG; Lille away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lille in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
5
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Lille have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 48%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stade Brestois 29) and 42% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lille in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 52% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 42% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lille tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lille in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lille 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.33 xG and Lille 1.32 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lille landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Lille attack 0.94 / defence 0.88, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 37% | Draw 26% | Lille 37%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 50%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lille's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.64 PPG, Lille 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.