Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Nice travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nice's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Nice 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Nice trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 70% and Nice 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 67% | Nice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.07 xG and Nice 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.353 / defence 0.776 | Nice attack 1.148 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.418. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Paris Saint Germain games / 64 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 21% | Nice 23%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Nice 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 80% | Nice 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 21% | Nice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.07 / Nice 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.353 / def 0.776 | Nice attack 1.148 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Nice xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 3 Nice.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning, Nice a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Record (7 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 3W | Draws 2 | Nice 2W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.35) and Nice's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.75
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.33
1.26
Nice xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
3%
34.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.26 for Nice, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 64 games, going 46W 16D 2L for 2.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.66 PPG from 64 outings (29W 19D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 22W 8D 2L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.38 points per game from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.50 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 46W 16D 2L in their last 64 games (2.41 PPG), while Nice have gone 29W 19D 16L in their last 64 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nice away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.31 PPG; Nice away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Paris Saint Germain at 75%, Nice at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Paris Saint Germain and 53% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 62% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 53% of Nice's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nice tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Nice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.07 xG and Nice 1.26 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.35 / defence 0.78 against Nice attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 21% | Nice 23%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Nice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 67%, Nice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with Nice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.