Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Paris Saint Germain at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Le Havre away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Le Havre managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2025, ended Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Le Havre — a Paris Saint Germain win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 70% and Le Havre 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 63% | Le Havre 56%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.053 / defence 0.839 | Le Havre attack 0.853 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.219. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 46 games and Le Havre's last 46.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.79 | Draw 4.08 | Le Havre 5.05. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.65 / Le Havre 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.053 / def 0.839 | Le Havre attack 0.853 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Le Havre xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning, Le Havre a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.05) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.85x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 46 games and Le Havre's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.08
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Le Havre xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.87 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 34W 9D 3L from 46 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 24L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 18W 3D 1L from their last 22 home games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.15 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Le Havre in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 34W 9D 3L in their last 46 games (2.41 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.59 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 64%, Le Havre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Paris Saint Germain) and 50% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Le Havre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 59% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 50% of Le Havre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 59% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 3-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 63%, Le Havre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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