Auxerre 0-0 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lyon make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lyon's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lyon away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 1.00 PPG clear of Auxerre over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Lyon and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2025, ended Auxerre 1–3 Lyon — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 50% versus Lyon 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 56% | Lyon 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.08 xG and Lyon 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.664 / defence 0.934 | Lyon attack 1.066 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.209. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Auxerre's last 46 games and Lyon's last 46.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.05 | Draw 3.52 | Lyon 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Auxerre 1.08 / Lyon 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.664 / def 0.934 | Lyon attack 1.066 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Lyon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lyon xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Lyon kick off?
Auxerre vs Lyon kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Lyon.
Where is Auxerre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lyon part of?
Auxerre vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 13) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of winning, Lyon a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Auxerre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.66x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.07x) against Auxerre's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 46 games and Lyon's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.52
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Lyon xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.20 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 10D 23L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.67 PPG from 46 outings (23W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Lyon have gone 23W 8D 15L in their last 46 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lyon away?
Auxerre's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.43 PPG; Lyon away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lyon in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Auxerre and Lyon, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lyon have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 1, Lyon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Lyon 3-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 44%, Lyon 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 61% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lyon in 30%; Auxerre have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Lyon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 61% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Auxerre's matches and 61% of Lyon's.
Do Auxerre and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Auxerre's recent matches and 70% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 13, as Auxerre and Lyon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.08 xG and Lyon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.66 / defence 0.93 against Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 33% | Draw 28% | Lyon 39%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 56%, Lyon 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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