Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Monaco (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Monaco face Clermont Foot.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Monaco and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Louis-II in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Monaco's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Clermont Foot's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Monaco's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Monaco, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Clermont Foot — Clermont Foot have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Monaco 4–2 Clermont Foot — a Monaco win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Monaco and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Monaco — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Clermont Foot 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.902 / defence 0.783 | Clermont Foot attack 0.658 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.377. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Monaco have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Clermont Foot's projected output down. Data: built from Monaco's last 69 games and Clermont Foot's last 69.

Result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 21%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.06 | Draw 3.26 | Clermont Foot 4.81. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Monaco's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monaco 40% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).

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