Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium de Toulouse this season.
Montpellier's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Montpellier away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Toulouse 2W, Montpellier 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Montpellier winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 58% versus Montpellier 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Montpellier 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.983 / defence 1.048 | Montpellier attack 0.990 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.382. Data: 69 Toulouse games / 69 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Montpellier 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Montpellier 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Toulouse 1.40 / Montpellier 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.983 / def 1.048 | Montpellier attack 0.990 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Montpellier xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Montpellier kick off?
Toulouse vs Montpellier kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Toulouse vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Montpellier part of?
Toulouse vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 36% chance of winning, Montpellier a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Toulouse and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Montpellier?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Montpellier in?
Toulouse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Montpellier (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.98x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.99x) against Toulouse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.85
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.83
1.44
Montpellier xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.44 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Toulouse's recent record stands at 23W 19D 27L from 69 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 29L across 69 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Toulouse against 1.28 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 9W 13D 12L from 34 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 14W 4D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.51 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 23W 19D 27L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 24W 16D 29L in their last 69 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Montpellier away?
Montpellier's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.18 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Montpellier in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Montpellier won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
0
Draws
3
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Montpellier have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 65%, Montpellier 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 56% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Montpellier?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Toulouse's games and 47% of Montpellier's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Toulouse's recent games and 56% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Montpellier tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.40 xG and Montpellier 1.44 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 36% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 38%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Montpellier 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Montpellier's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.28 PPG, Montpellier 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.