Marseille 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Marseille host Auxerre at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille at Orange Vélodrome this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Marseille have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Marseille register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Marseille have won 2, Auxerre 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Marseille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Marseille trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 57% versus Auxerre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 54% | Auxerre 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.28 xG and Auxerre 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 0.988 / defence 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.841 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.329. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Marseille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Marseille games / 10 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 62% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 18%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Auxerre 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Marseille 60% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 62% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Marseille 2.28 / Auxerre 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 0.988 / def 1.054 | Auxerre attack 0.841 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Marseille (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Auxerre xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Auxerre kick off?
Marseille vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Marseille 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Marseille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Auxerre part of?
Marseille vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 62% chance of winning, Auxerre a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Marseille and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Marseille 2W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Marseille and Auxerre in?
Marseille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Marseille vs Auxerre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Marseille's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
62%
1.63
21%
4.86
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.46
1.18
Auxerre xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
10%
9.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
2%
54.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Marseille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Marseille and 1.18 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 19W 13D 12L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 24W 10D 10L from 44 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Marseille on 1.59 PPG, Auxerre on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Marseille have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (11W 8D 2L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Marseille are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Auxerre away?
Marseille's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.95 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Marseille or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Marseille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Marseille
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Marseille have won 4, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Auxerre?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 52%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Marseille) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Marseille's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Marseille vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Marseille's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Marseille and Auxerre tend to score early?
Marseille have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Marseille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Marseille 1-3 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.28 xG and Auxerre 1.18 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Marseille fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Auxerre attack 0.84 / defence 1.50, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 62% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 18%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 54%, Auxerre 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Marseille 1.59 PPG, Auxerre 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.