Lyon 2-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Groupama Stadium plays host to Lyon versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Lyon's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lyon 1W, Auxerre 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 52% versus Auxerre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 60% | Auxerre 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.94 xG and Auxerre 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.180 / defence 1.071 | Auxerre attack 0.735 / defence 1.571. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.393. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.571 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Lyon games / 8 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 73% | Draw 17% | Auxerre 10%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Auxerre 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 60% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 73% | Draw 17% | Auxerre 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 65% | xG Lyon 2.94 / Auxerre 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.180 / def 1.071 | Auxerre attack 0.735 / def 1.571 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Lyon (73%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Auxerre xG
65%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Auxerre kick off?
Lyon vs Auxerre kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Lyon 2 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lyon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Auxerre part of?
Lyon vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 73% chance of winning, Auxerre a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lyon and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in?
Lyon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lyon vs Auxerre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.94. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.73x) against Lyon's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
73%
1.36
17%
5.83
10%
10.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Lyon xG
Total xG
4.04
1.09
Auxerre xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.83
17%
Draw
10.47
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
5%
18.92
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
1%
198.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Lyon and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Lyon and 1.09 for Auxerre, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lyon come into this having played 42 games, going 20W 6D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.86 PPG from 42 outings (23W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Lyon against 1.86 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lyon's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.83 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 20W 6D 16L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Auxerre away?
Lyon's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.48 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Lyon or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Auxerre in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Auxerre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 57%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 52% (Auxerre).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lyon's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Auxerre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Lyon and Auxerre drew 2-2 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.94 xG and Auxerre 1.09 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lyon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 1.57, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 73% | Draw 17% | Auxerre 10%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.57 PPG, Auxerre 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.