Lorient 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lorient at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade du Moustoir to face Lorient in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Lorient (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lorient's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lorient are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Lorient's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lorient, 1 for Le Havre and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Lorient 1–1 Le Havre — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 52% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 52% | Le Havre 48%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Lorient recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.61 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.055 / defence 1.072 | Le Havre attack 0.756 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.300. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Lorient's last 33 games and Le Havre's last 67.
Result probabilities: Lorient 49% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.03 | Draw 3.69 | Le Havre 4.23. Lorient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lorient 70% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 49% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lorient 1.61 / Le Havre 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.055 / def 1.072 | Le Havre attack 0.756 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Lorient (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Le Havre xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lorient vs Le Havre kick off?
Lorient vs Le Havre kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stade du Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Le Havre?
Lorient 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Lorient vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Le Havre part of?
Lorient vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 49% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lorient and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lorient vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lorient's attack rating (1.05) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.76x) against Lorient's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Lorient's last 33 games and Le Havre's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.69
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.67
1.05
Le Havre xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lorient and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lorient and 1.05 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lorient come into this having played 67 games, going 33W 17D 17L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 0.99 PPG from 67 outings (16W 18D 33L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Lorient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lorient's home form reads 23W 7D 3L across their last 33 home games, a 2.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Lorient are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lorient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lorient are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.04 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
Lorient (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lorient
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lorient and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 games (1.73 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 18D 33L in their last 67 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Le Havre away?
Lorient's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 2.30 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Lorient and Le Havre, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won Le Havre 3-0 Lorient on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Lorient
2
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Le Havre?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Lorient have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Le Havre 0-2 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 61%, Le Havre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lorient) and 39% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lorient vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lorient and Le Havre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lorient's games and 54% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lorient and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Lorient's recent games and 39% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lorient's recent matches and 64% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lorient.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Lorient 0-2 at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.61 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lorient fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 49% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 24%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 52%, Le Havre 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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