Le Havre 0-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 39%, yet in-form Monaco provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Oceane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Oceane — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Monaco have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monaco haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monaco are 0.80 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Monaco — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Monaco 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Monaco 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.59 xG and Monaco 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.939 / defence 0.994 | Monaco attack 1.136 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.261. Data: 34 Le Havre games / 34 Monaco games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 29% | Monaco 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Monaco 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monaco (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Oceane • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 29% | Monaco 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Le Havre 1.59 / Monaco 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.939 / def 0.994 | Monaco attack 1.136 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Monaco xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Monaco kick off?
Le Havre vs Monaco kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Stade Oceane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Le Havre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Oceane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Monaco part of?
Le Havre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 39% chance of winning, Monaco a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Le Havre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 4 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.14x) against Le Havre's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Le Havre xG
Total xG
3.02
1.43
Monaco xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.43 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 14D 13L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. Le Havre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Monaco's form line: 16W 6D 12L from 34 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. Monaco haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.76 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Pre-Season
Monaco
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 14D 13L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Monaco have gone 16W 6D 12L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Monaco away?
Le Havre's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.35 PPG; Monaco away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
4
Draws
3
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Monaco?
From 7 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Monaco have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Monaco 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Le Havre) and 65% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 35% of games; Monaco in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 71% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Le Havre's recent games and 65% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Monaco tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Monaco in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Oceane, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.59 xG and Monaco 1.43 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Monaco attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 39% | Draw 29% | Monaco 32%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Monaco 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monaco's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.