Estac Troyes vs Lyon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lyon make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Lyon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 0.70 PPG clear of Estac Troyes in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Lyon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Estac Troyes's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Lyon winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lyon have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lyon — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 51% versus Lyon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 54% | Lyon 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.81 xG and Lyon 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.655 / defence 1.494 | Lyon attack 0.885 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.392. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Estac Troyes games / 41 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 16% | Draw 22% | Lyon 62%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Lyon 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 50% | Lyon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 16% | Draw 22% | Lyon 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Estac Troyes 0.81 / Lyon 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.655 / def 1.494 | Lyon attack 0.885 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Lyon (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Lyon xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lyon kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lyon is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lyon part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 16% chance of winning, Lyon a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lyon?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Lyon 4W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lyon in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.66x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.89x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
16%
6.29
22%
4.50
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.65
1.84
Lyon xG
6.29
16%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
3%
39.67
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.84 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 21W 8D 12L from 41 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 22W 8D 11L across 41 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.80 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 13W 2D 5L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 12L in their last 41 games (1.73 PPG), while Lyon have gone 22W 8D 11L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lyon away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.05 PPG; Lyon away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lyon in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 4-1 on 19 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lyon?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Lyon have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-3 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 55%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estac Troyes) and 50% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Lyon in 45%; Lyon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Estac Troyes's matches and 50% of Lyon's.
Do Estac Troyes and Lyon tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.