Auxerre vs Paris FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Auxerre, 1.70 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Auxerre 2W, Paris FC 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Paris FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 50% | Paris FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.22 xG and Paris FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.907 / defence 0.983 | Paris FC attack 0.848 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Data: 40 Auxerre games / 40 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Paris FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Paris FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Auxerre 1.22 / Paris FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.907 / def 0.983 | Paris FC attack 0.848 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Paris FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 39% chance of winning, Paris FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 3 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.85x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.44
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.31
1.09
Paris FC xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.09 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 10W 10D 20L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 13L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Auxerre against 1.38 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 5W 8D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Auxerre's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.40 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Paris FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 45% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 40% of games; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 65% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 45% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris FC tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.