Auxerre vs Monaco – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Monaco travel to to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Auxerre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Auxerre's home record at : 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monaco haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Monaco away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.60 PPG versus Monaco's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Monaco have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 41% versus Monaco 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 44% | Monaco 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.65 xG and Monaco 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.953 / defence 0.910 | Monaco attack 1.144 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.329. Data: 34 Auxerre games / 34 Monaco games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 26% | Monaco 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Monaco 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 40% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 26% | Monaco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Auxerre 1.65 / Monaco 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.953 / def 0.910 | Monaco attack 1.144 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Monaco xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Monaco kick off?
Auxerre vs Monaco is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027.
What competition is Auxerre vs Monaco part of?
Auxerre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 43% chance of winning, Monaco a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Auxerre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 5W.
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Auxerre vs Monaco?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.95x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.78
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.03
1.38
Monaco xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
6%
16.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.38 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 10D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. Auxerre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (16W 6D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. Monaco haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.76 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Pre-Season
Monaco
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while Monaco have gone 16W 6D 12L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Monaco away?
Auxerre's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.29 PPG; Monaco away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 35%, Monaco 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 65% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 47% of games; Monaco in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Auxerre's recent matches and 71% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Auxerre's matches and 65% of Monaco's.
Do Auxerre and Monaco tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Monaco in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.