Auxerre vs Monaco – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Auxerre at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Monaco travel to Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.30 PPG versus Monaco's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Monaco have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Monaco have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 51% versus Monaco 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Monaco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.33 xG and Monaco 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.856 / defence 0.978 | Monaco attack 0.904 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Data: 43 Auxerre games / 43 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 30% | Monaco 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Monaco 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Monaco 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 39% | Draw 30% | Monaco 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Auxerre 1.33 / Monaco 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.856 / def 0.978 | Monaco attack 0.904 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Monaco xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Monaco kick off?
Auxerre vs Monaco is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Monaco part of?
Auxerre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 39% chance of winning, Monaco a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Auxerre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Monaco 5W.
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.86x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.36
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.49
1.17
Monaco xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 11D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 1.60 PPG from 43 outings (20W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.67 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Monaco have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Monaco away?
Auxerre's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.38 PPG; Monaco away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Monaco 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 62% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Auxerre's games and 71% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 62% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Monaco tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Monaco in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More French football predictions →