Angers vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Le Havre at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Le Havre (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Angers against 0.50 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Angers lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 42% versus Le Havre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 33% | Le Havre 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.52 xG and Le Havre 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.792 / defence 1.200 | Le Havre attack 1.120 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Angers's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Angers games / 43 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 32% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 42%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Le Havre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 40% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 32% | Draw 25% | Le Havre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Angers 1.52 / Le Havre 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.792 / def 1.200 | Le Havre attack 1.120 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Le Havre xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Le Havre kick off?
Angers vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Le Havre part of?
Angers vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 32% chance of winning, Le Havre a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Angers and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
Record (5 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 3 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Angers and Le Havre in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.79x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.12x) against Angers's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
32%
3.09
25%
3.96
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Angers xG
Total xG
3.27
1.76
Le Havre xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.93
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Angers and 1.76 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Angers have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 11D 21L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 7W 16D 20L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Angers against 0.86 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 7D 12L from 21 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.95 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 20L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Le Havre away?
Angers's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.14 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Angers or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Le Havre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Angers
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
From 5 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Le Havre 0-0 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 43%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Angers and 29% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Angers's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Angers's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Le Havre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.